On Thursday, the Bank of England raised Bank Rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4%. It was the first increase since August 2023, with eight of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee backing the move and one preferring a larger rise. The reasoning was not hard to follow. Energy prices pushed up by the conflict in the Middle East took inflation to 3.5% in September, and the Bank now expects it to approach 5% by the middle of next year before easing. Governor Andrew Bailey said there was “enough inflationary pressure in the pipeline” to justify the rise.
Nobody is looking at mortgage rates this weekend and cheering the decision, and I have no intention of pretending otherwise. Equally, this is a rise that had been coming for some time, and the surprise for many was that it had not arrived sooner. Given the pressures building across the global economy, it was inevitable.
The question worth asking is not whether it matters, because it does, but how much it changes for the property market in Scotland. My view is that it changes less than the headlines might suggest, and I sought out a more experienced opinion to see if that might well be the case.
by
Gordon McGuire
“The market has already adjusted and exhibited some minor changes in dynamics…”
– John Kelly, Managing Partner
“The market has already adjusted and exhibited some minor changes in dynamics…”
– John Kelly, Managing Partner
Mortgage pricing tells the story. Volatility in swap rates since the war began in late February had already pushed the average two-year fixed rate from 4.83% in January to 5.97% ahead of the decision. Much of this week’s increase was therefore built into the deals on offer long before Thursday. In the days since, the average two-year fix has actually edged down slightly. Moneyfacts’ Adam French said that following the Bank’s move, “another significant jump in fixed mortgage rates is unlikely”.
I spoke with John Kelly, Corum’s founder and Managing Partner, who has seen more rate cycles than most, and he made the same point. “Whilst notionally any upward movement in interest rates is unwelcome, I believe the lenders had today’s rise, and possibly one further rise in the near term, telegraphed well enough in advance that mortgage deals have, for some weeks, been calibrated accordingly.”
It would be easy to see a slightly more measured pace in parts of the market this autumn and put it down to the rate rise. I think that would be a mistake. What we have seen is buyers taking a more considered approach to their decisions, and some of those who were never fully committed stepping back. That is a natural recalibration after an exceptionally busy period, and it was under way well before Thursday. A more thoughtful buyer is not an apathetic one.
“The market has already adjusted and exhibited some minor changes in dynamics, where mortgage exposure is the most manifest,” John told me. Put simply, where buyers are more heavily borrowed, the numbers have shifted and decisions are being made with more care. That is prudence, and it is healthy.
We have been here before, in far more dramatic circumstances.
We have been here before, in far more dramatic circumstances.
We have been here before, in far more dramatic circumstances. After the mini-Budget in September 2022, the average two-year fixed rate rose from 4.74% on the day of the statement to 6.65% within a month. Lenders withdrew a record 935 mortgage products in a single day. That was far closer to genuine market panic than anything we are seeing now. A quarter-point rise, signalled well in advance and largely priced in, is a different matter.
At the risk of sounding like an advocate for the Treasury, the UK economy is in a better position than many expected. Last month, the IMF raised its forecast for UK growth in 2026 to 1.3%, which puts the UK among the faster-growing economies in the G7. OECD figures show that UK growth in the first half of this year was joint fastest in the group. The Bank itself cited stronger-than-expected activity as part of its reasoning.
Closer to home, the Scottish market continues to outperform. Average house prices in Scotland rose by 2.9% in the year to August, comfortably ahead of the UK figure of 0.9% – and within pockets of the affluent suburbs of the city, that growth is higher still. Across Greater Glasgow, its suburbs and Ayrshire, the market remains historically strong.
A quarter-point move in Bank Rate does not undo that overnight.
The biggest hurdle this market faces is not the cost of borrowing but the lack of homes for sale.
The biggest hurdle this market faces is not the cost of borrowing but the lack of homes for sale.
The biggest hurdle this market faces is not the cost of borrowing but the lack of homes for sale. Buyers remain active and motivated, and many are frustrated by how few homes are coming to market. When the right home appears, priced properly and presented well, the response continues to be strong.
“Continued low levels of supply and still buoyant demand mean the market as a whole shows a high level of resilience,” John said. “Properties in Greater Glasgow and the surrounding areas and suburbs continue to sell very well indeed.”
Interest rates will always move, and there may well be another rise before this cycle turns. Sentiment is much harder to shake, and everything we are seeing on the ground suggests the appetite to buy and sell is still there.
For sellers who have been waiting for the right moment, the numbers have not changed as much as the headlines suggest. List them, and the buyers will come.
